The simulator used to reconstruct "gross household demand" by adding
back a synthesized PV trace (irradiance × kWp peak-match) to the P1 net
meter, then re-subtract a different synthesized PV per scenario. That
reconstruction was leaky — Michiel's horizontal pyranometer is at a
different location and orientation than dad's SE-facing array, so the
synthesis can't reproduce dad's actual production curve. Result: 511
hours of negative "gross demand" and phantom export inflation up to
~6 kW peak in scenarios where pv_kwp ≠ 3.
New shape: simulator works on a single signed signal, raw_demand_kw
(the P1 reading as recorded). No solar synthesis. Whatever the meter
shows is the input.
Concretely:
- sim.py: drop synthesize_pv, reconstruct_gross_demand,
schedule_with_planning_pv, no_foresight_schedule, groundhog_schedule,
_oracle_daily_schedule_legacy. Rename column convention demand_kwh →
raw_demand_kw. Plug-in discharge cap becomes max(0, raw_demand_kw).
- web.py: drop pv_kwp/pv_yield/strategy form params. Demand slider
now applies as an *additive* baseline shift (not multiplicative —
multiplying scaled the export bursts too, which is wrong since dad's
PV stays the same regardless of household consumption). Default
demand_kwh = 2325 (dad's actual full-year net per his quote;
extrapolated 8-month window comes out to ~1515, partial coverage).
Saturation metric now measures (surplus ≥ pc_max), not (charge ≥
pc_max) — the latter conflated arbitrage top-off with power-bottleneck.
- templates/index.html: drop PV input, drop strategy radios, drop
irradiance chart. Modal charts collapsed from 4 to 3: price, net
meter (toggles between with/without battery), SoC.
- app.js: mirror the above, drop pv_kwp/strategy plumbing.
- tests: rebase fixtures on raw_demand_kw, drop synthesize_pv test.
- scripts: drop --pv-kwp/--pv-yield flags throughout, switch column
references to raw_demand_kw.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Single algorithm with two passes:
Pass 1 — greedy self-consumption (real-firmware default):
For each hour, charge any surplus, discharge into any demand.
This nails sunny days: battery fills from morning surplus, exports
only after capacity is reached, drains during evening peak.
Pass 2 — daily price-spread arbitrage on the residual capacity:
For each UTC day, repeatedly find the most profitable
cheap-charge → expensive-discharge pair (positive after round-trip
efficiency), execute it, recompute SoC trajectory, repeat until no
profitable cycle remains. Discharge must fit within hourly demand
for plug-in batteries (no grid push). Sees only that day's prices,
matching what a Tibber/Frank-style smart-charging controller does
with day-ahead price visibility.
Effect:
- Sunny weeks (June 17-19): unchanged — greedy fill + evening discharge.
- No-sun weeks (Feb 7+): now generates arbitrage savings instead of €0.
- Mixed weeks: greedy handles surplus, arbitrage handles the rest.
Updated: test_grid_arbitrage_kicks_in_on_no_sun_days replaces the prior
"greedy doesn't arbitrage" test; now verifies the dispatcher charges
cheap hours and discharges expensive ones when no PV is available.
The LP was producing visually unintuitive schedules: when several surplus
hours had identical cost benefit (true with constant export_rate), the
solver picked an arbitrary subset, which the user couldn't read as 'this
is the battery doing its job'. Worse, the daily-LP variant drained to 0
every midnight because it placed zero value on next-day SoC.
Replaced oracle_daily_schedule() with a one-pass greedy dispatcher that
matches what every plug-in battery in the catalog (Marstek, Zendure,
EcoFlow, HomeWizard) actually does in 'self-consumption mode':
for each hour:
if exporting at meter: charge as fast as power+capacity allows
if importing at meter: discharge to cover net demand
Trade-offs:
- Greedy doesn't do grid arbitrage (charge cheap → discharge expensive
without a surplus source). The LP would; real plug-in firmware
doesn't, so greedy is more honest about what dad's battery would do.
- Charts now show 'fill in the morning, overflow at midday' which is
what users expect to see.
- Updated tests: dropped LP-arbitrage assertion, added a greedy-fills-
from-surplus-then-overflows test that locks the new behaviour in.
- Hourly data exporter (InfluxDB → CSV) for prices, P1, irradiance.
- LP-based 24h-foresight oracle dispatch with SoC-consistent state engine.
- Reverse-engineered thuisbatterijgids.nl formula (matches their quotes
to within €0.50 across three battery configs).
- Catalog scraper for the 52 batteries on thuisbatterijgids.net via their
/wp-json REST endpoint.
- Web app (Flask) that ranks every catalog battery by honest payback and
contrasts with the store's quote, deployable via the included Procfile.
