The simulator used to reconstruct "gross household demand" by adding
back a synthesized PV trace (irradiance × kWp peak-match) to the P1 net
meter, then re-subtract a different synthesized PV per scenario. That
reconstruction was leaky — Michiel's horizontal pyranometer is at a
different location and orientation than dad's SE-facing array, so the
synthesis can't reproduce dad's actual production curve. Result: 511
hours of negative "gross demand" and phantom export inflation up to
~6 kW peak in scenarios where pv_kwp ≠ 3.
New shape: simulator works on a single signed signal, raw_demand_kw
(the P1 reading as recorded). No solar synthesis. Whatever the meter
shows is the input.
Concretely:
- sim.py: drop synthesize_pv, reconstruct_gross_demand,
schedule_with_planning_pv, no_foresight_schedule, groundhog_schedule,
_oracle_daily_schedule_legacy. Rename column convention demand_kwh →
raw_demand_kw. Plug-in discharge cap becomes max(0, raw_demand_kw).
- web.py: drop pv_kwp/pv_yield/strategy form params. Demand slider
now applies as an *additive* baseline shift (not multiplicative —
multiplying scaled the export bursts too, which is wrong since dad's
PV stays the same regardless of household consumption). Default
demand_kwh = 2325 (dad's actual full-year net per his quote;
extrapolated 8-month window comes out to ~1515, partial coverage).
Saturation metric now measures (surplus ≥ pc_max), not (charge ≥
pc_max) — the latter conflated arbitrage top-off with power-bottleneck.
- templates/index.html: drop PV input, drop strategy radios, drop
irradiance chart. Modal charts collapsed from 4 to 3: price, net
meter (toggles between with/without battery), SoC.
- app.js: mirror the above, drop pv_kwp/strategy plumbing.
- tests: rebase fixtures on raw_demand_kw, drop synthesize_pv test.
- scripts: drop --pv-kwp/--pv-yield flags throughout, switch column
references to raw_demand_kw.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
- scripts/import_dad_p1.py converts his 15-min cumulative meter dump
(~/Downloads/P1e-2025-1-1-2026-1-1.csv) into our hourly format.
Net of PV exports — power_w can be negative on surplus hours.
Aligned to our 2023-09 → 2024-09 window by (month, day, hour) so
prices and irradiance stay seasonally matched.
- data/raw/p1_hourly.csv is now dad's data; ours preserved as
p1_hourly_michiel.csv for diff/comparison.
- LP gE upper bound was 'pv[t]'; now max(0, pv − demand). This was
wrong before but invisible because demand was always positive; with
dad's net data demand goes negative and the LP went infeasible.
- New 'Export rate' field in Advanced. Override saldering toggle with
a literal €/kWh — set to −0.106 for terugleveringskosten.
