Use dad's real P1 data; add export-rate input for terugleveringskosten

- scripts/import_dad_p1.py converts his 15-min cumulative meter dump
  (~/Downloads/P1e-2025-1-1-2026-1-1.csv) into our hourly format.
  Net of PV exports — power_w can be negative on surplus hours.
  Aligned to our 2023-09 → 2024-09 window by (month, day, hour) so
  prices and irradiance stay seasonally matched.
- data/raw/p1_hourly.csv is now dad's data; ours preserved as
  p1_hourly_michiel.csv for diff/comparison.
- LP gE upper bound was 'pv[t]'; now max(0, pv − demand). This was
  wrong before but invisible because demand was always positive; with
  dad's net data demand goes negative and the LP went infeasible.
- New 'Export rate' field in Advanced. Override saldering toggle with
  a literal €/kWh — set to −0.106 for terugleveringskosten.

scripts/import_dad_p1.py

@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Convert dad's 15-min P1 export into our hourly p1 format.
+
+Source: ~/Downloads/P1e-2025-1-1-2026-1-1.csv (cumulative T1/T2 import/export
+meter readings, every 15 min, 2025 calendar year, Europe/Amsterdam local time).
+
+Output: data/raw/p1_hourly.csv (timestamp UTC, power_w mean over hour). Net
+of PV exports — `power_w` can be negative when his solar exceeded household
+demand. The simulator interprets `demand_kwh = power_w / 1000`, and a plug-in
+battery's discharge cap `max(0, demand - pv)` correctly handles negative
+demand by forbidding discharge during surplus hours.
+
+The simulator's window is 2023-09-01 → 2024-09-01 UTC. Dad's data is the
+2025 calendar year. We align by (month, day, hour) so seasonal patterns
+(winter peaks, summer surplus) line up with our prices and irradiance.
+Feb 29 in our 2024 leap year falls back to Feb 28 from dad's 2025.
+
+Run from project root:
+    uv run python scripts/import_dad_p1.py
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
+    p.add_argument("--src", type=Path,
+                   default=Path.home() / "Downloads/P1e-2025-1-1-2026-1-1.csv")
+    p.add_argument("--out", type=Path, default=Path("data/raw/p1_hourly.csv"))
+    p.add_argument("--window-start", default="2023-09-01T00:00:00Z")
+    p.add_argument("--window-end",   default="2024-09-01T00:00:00Z")
+    args = p.parse_args()
+
+    print(f"Reading dad's CSV from {args.src}")
+    dad = pd.read_csv(args.src, parse_dates=["time"])
+    dad["time"] = dad["time"].dt.tz_localize(
+        "Europe/Amsterdam", ambiguous="infer", nonexistent="shift_forward"
+    )
+    dad = dad.set_index("time").sort_index()
+
+    # Cumulative net energy (signed). Imports add, exports subtract.
+    net_cum = (
+        dad["Import T1 kWh"] + dad["Import T2 kWh"]
+        - dad["Export T1 kWh"] - dad["Export T2 kWh"]
+    )
+
+    # Sample at exact hour boundaries (the meter records every 15 min, so the
+    # H:00 reading exists). Diff to get energy consumed in each hour.
+    hourly_stock = net_cum.resample("1h").first()
+    hourly_kwh = hourly_stock.diff().dropna()
+    # Now hourly_kwh.index[i] = end of the hour just consumed; shift to start.
+    hourly_kwh.index = hourly_kwh.index - pd.Timedelta(hours=1)
+    hourly_kwh = hourly_kwh.tz_convert("UTC")
+
+    annual = hourly_kwh.sum()
+    print(f"Dad's hourly net (kWh): n={len(hourly_kwh)}, "
+          f"annual net = {annual:.0f} kWh "
+          f"(min hour {hourly_kwh.min():.2f}, max {hourly_kwh.max():.2f}, "
+          f"{(hourly_kwh < 0).sum()} export hours)")
+
+    # Build (month, day, hour) → kWh lookup. dad's full year covers every key
+    # except a possible duplicate around DST (averaged).
+    lookup = (
+        hourly_kwh.groupby([
+            hourly_kwh.index.month,
+            hourly_kwh.index.day,
+            hourly_kwh.index.hour,
+        ]).mean()
+    )
+
+    # Build target timestamps for our simulator window.
+    target = pd.date_range(args.window_start, args.window_end,
+                           freq="1h", inclusive="left", tz="UTC")
+    out = []
+    missing = 0
+    for ts in target:
+        m, d, h = ts.month, ts.day, ts.hour
+        if (m, d, h) in lookup.index:
+            kwh = lookup.loc[(m, d, h)]
+        elif m == 2 and d == 29 and (2, 28, h) in lookup.index:
+            kwh = lookup.loc[(2, 28, h)]
+        else:
+            missing += 1
+            continue
+        out.append((ts, kwh * 1000.0))   # kWh per hour → mean watts
+
+    if missing:
+        print(f"WARNING: {missing} target hours had no dad-data match")
+
+    df_out = pd.DataFrame(out, columns=["timestamp", "power_w"])
+    df_out["timestamp"] = df_out["timestamp"].dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ")
+
+    args.out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    df_out.to_csv(args.out, index=False)
+    print(f"Wrote {len(df_out)} hours → {args.out}")
+    print(f"  annualised mean: {df_out['power_w'].mean():.0f} W "
+          f"({df_out['power_w'].sum() / 1000:.0f} kWh net per year)")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

src/pluginbattery/sim.py

@@ -258,12 +258,15 @@ def oracle_daily_schedule(df: pd.DataFrame, battery: Battery) -> np.ndarray:
         # zero-cost cycles when export_price ≈ 0 (charge from cheap surplus,
         # discharge into cheap export — both sides zero, so any volume is "free").
         # gI: practical max draw is demand + max charge; cap generously at 100 kWh/h.
-        # gE: cannot exceed PV production (plug-in) or PV + battery discharge (hybrid).
+        # gE: bounded by *natural* export capacity = max(0, pv − demand). This
+        # also handles the case where the demand series is already net of an
+        # external PV (so demand can be negative even when pv = 0).
         gi_bounds = [(0.0, 100.0)] * m
+        natural_export = np.maximum(0.0, pv - demand)
         if battery.allows_export:
-            ge_bounds = [(0.0, max(1e-9, pv[t] + pd_max)) for t in range(m)]
+            ge_bounds = [(0.0, max(1e-9, natural_export[t] + pd_max)) for t in range(m)]
         else:
-            ge_bounds = [(0.0, max(1e-9, pv[t])) for t in range(m)]
+            ge_bounds = [(0.0, max(1e-9, natural_export[t])) for t in range(m)]
         bounds = c_bounds + d_bounds + gi_bounds + ge_bounds
 
         # Energy balance equality (m rows): -c[t] + d[t] + gI[t] - gE[t] = demand[t] - pv[t]

src/pluginbattery/static/app.js

@@ -52,6 +52,7 @@ function fmtPayback(p) {
 
 function readScenario() {
   const fd = new FormData(form);
+  const expRaw = fd.get("export_rate");
   return {
     demand_kwh:  parseFloat(fd.get("demand_kwh")),
     retail:      parseFloat(fd.get("retail")),
@@ -61,6 +62,7 @@ function readScenario() {
     saldering:   fd.get("saldering")  === "true",
     eta:         parseFloat(fd.get("eta")),
     inflation:   parseFloat(fd.get("inflation")),
+    export_rate: expRaw === null || expRaw === "" ? null : parseFloat(expRaw),
   };
 }
 

src/pluginbattery/templates/index.html

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 <meta charset="utf-8">
 <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
 <title>Honest battery payback — vs thuisbatterijgids.nl</title>
-<link rel="stylesheet" href="{{ url_for('static', filename='style.css') }}?v=8">
+<link rel="stylesheet" href="{{ url_for('static', filename='style.css') }}?v=9">
 </head>
 <body>
 
@@ -54,6 +54,10 @@
         <label>Energy-price inflation
           <input type="number" name="inflation" min="0" max="0.20" step="0.005" value="{{ defaults.inflation }}">
         </label>
+        <label>Export rate (€/kWh, overrides saldering)
+          <input type="number" name="export_rate" step="any" placeholder="(use saldering setting)" value="{{ defaults.export_rate if defaults.export_rate is not none else '' }}">
+          <small>Set negative for terugleveringskosten (e.g. −0.106). Blank = use saldering toggle above.</small>
+        </label>
       </details>
 
       <button type="submit" id="recalc-btn">Recalculate</button>
@@ -134,6 +138,6 @@
   </p>
 </footer>
 
-<script src="{{ url_for('static', filename='app.js') }}?v=8"></script>
+<script src="{{ url_for('static', filename='app.js') }}?v=9"></script>
 </body>
 </html>

src/pluginbattery/web.py

@@ -108,7 +108,7 @@ def _worker_run_lp(spec):
 
 # ─── Core compute ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 def _build_df(demand_kwh: float, retail: float, pv_kwp: float, pv_yield: float,
-              fixed_rate: bool, saldering: bool):
+              fixed_rate: bool, saldering: bool, export_rate: float | None):
     df = _BASE_DF.copy()
     df["demand_kwh"] = _BASE_DF["demand_kwh"] * (demand_kwh / _ANNUAL_DEMAND_BASE)
     if fixed_rate:
@@ -119,7 +119,12 @@ def _build_df(demand_kwh: float, retail: float, pv_kwp: float, pv_yield: float,
         df["epex_eur_per_kwh"] = _BASE_DF["epex_eur_per_kwh"] * scale
     if pv_kwp > 0:
         df = synthesize_pv(df, kwp=pv_kwp, target_kwh_per_kwp_per_year=pv_yield)
-    df["export_eur_per_kwh"] = df["eur_per_kwh"] if saldering else 0.0
+    if export_rate is not None:
+        df["export_eur_per_kwh"] = float(export_rate)
+    elif saldering:
+        df["export_eur_per_kwh"] = df["eur_per_kwh"]
+    else:
+        df["export_eur_per_kwh"] = 0.0
     return df
 
 
@@ -133,15 +138,17 @@ def compute_leaderboard(
     saldering: bool,
     eta: float,
     inflation: float,
+    export_rate: float | None = None,
 ) -> dict:
     key = (round(demand_kwh, 1), round(retail, 4), round(pv_kwp, 2),
            round(pv_yield, 1), fixed_rate, saldering, round(eta, 3),
-           round(inflation, 4))
+           round(inflation, 4),
+           None if export_rate is None else round(export_rate, 4))
     if key in _RESULT_CACHE:
         return _RESULT_CACHE[key]
 
     t0 = time.time()
-    df = _build_df(demand_kwh, retail, pv_kwp, pv_yield, fixed_rate, saldering)
+    df = _build_df(demand_kwh, retail, pv_kwp, pv_yield, fixed_rate, saldering, export_rate)
     avg_epex = float(df["epex_eur_per_kwh"].mean())
     store_params = StoreParams(avg_epex_eur_per_kwh=avg_epex)
 
@@ -167,7 +174,8 @@ def compute_leaderboard(
     # into the dataframe construction plus eta. Inflation isn't in here, so
     # tweaking only inflation hits the cache for every catalog entry.
     df_sig = (round(demand_kwh, 1), round(retail, 4), round(pv_kwp, 2),
-              round(pv_yield, 1), fixed_rate, saldering, round(eta, 3))
+              round(pv_yield, 1), fixed_rate, saldering, round(eta, 3),
+              None if export_rate is None else round(export_rate, 4))
 
     cached_results = {}
     todo = []
@@ -261,6 +269,7 @@ app = Flask(__name__)
 DEFAULTS = dict(
     demand_kwh=4000.0, retail=0.25, pv_kwp=3.0, pv_yield=875.0,
     fixed_rate=False, saldering=False, eta=0.88, inflation=0.03,
+    export_rate=None,
 )
 
 
@@ -273,6 +282,14 @@ def index():
 @app.route("/api/calculate", methods=["POST"])
 def calculate():
     p = request.get_json(silent=True) or {}
+    raw_export = p.get("export_rate")
+    if raw_export in (None, "", "null"):
+        export_rate = None
+    else:
+        try:
+            export_rate = float(raw_export)
+        except (ValueError, TypeError):
+            return jsonify({"error": f"bad export_rate: {raw_export!r}"}), 400
     try:
         result = compute_leaderboard(
             demand_kwh=float(p.get("demand_kwh", DEFAULTS["demand_kwh"])),
@@ -283,6 +300,7 @@ def calculate():
             saldering=bool(p.get("saldering", DEFAULTS["saldering"])),
             eta=float(p.get("eta", DEFAULTS["eta"])),
             inflation=float(p.get("inflation", DEFAULTS["inflation"])),
+            export_rate=export_rate,
         )
     except (ValueError, TypeError) as e:
         return jsonify({"error": str(e)}), 400